Weekend Update ~ 26 June 2011

Big update today because I'm on summer vacation until July 7th.

As already mentioned on Friday the SPX has been trading between 1260 and 1296 since early June and I hope it will continue till I'm back... ; )

It looks like a big flat has been underway since mid February. We're currently in wave [iv] or already in wave [v] of wave C so we should bottom out within the next one or two weeks:

If the market declines below 1260ish a sell-off to 1220-30 or even a tad lower to the weekly MA 76 (currently around 1200 and rising 2 handles/week) is very likely. A convincing break of 1296 though is bullish and should lead to a rally to 1313 and then 1345.


USD/CHF

As said last week as long as the USD/CHF stays below 0.86 the trend is down. We've already seen a new low on Friday and if we get a convincing break of the 0.83 area we may see 0.80 very soon.


EUR/CHF

Not much happened since my last update. The EUR/CHF just continues to go lower and as long as the channel holds I continue to expect lower prices.

EUR/USD

The EUR/USD has bounced off of the 1.41 area a few times already and it looks a bit like a contracting triangle is forming. If we break lower we could see 1.34-35 later this year and if we break higher a rally to 1.50ish again is likely.


Gold

Nothing really changed. Still in an uptrend as long as the uptrend line holds


The European Debt Crisis... : ))

Have a great rest of the weekend/next week and a great Independence Day to the US readers! ; )

See you on July 7th!

Hugo

S&P 500 ~ Pre-Market Warm-Up ~ 24 June 2011

The SPX sold-off to the low 1260's again yesterday and then bounced when the Greek news came out.

As you can see in the chart the market has been trading between 1260 and 1296 since early June. So, if you buy at 1260 and sell at 1296 with a stop a few handles below/above your risk/reward is quite good. ; )

If the SPX breaks out of this trading range the next target areas are 1220-30 and 1313ish.

S&P 500 ~ Pre-Market Warm-Up ~ 23 June 2011

Once again the rally peaked at 1296ish.

The current pattern looks very similar to June 9/10th and 14/15th so a sell-off to 1258 or even lower to 1249 is very likely

S&P 500 ~ Intraday Update 1 ~ 22 June 2011

The SPX did indeed close the gap at 1288 and rallied even further - almost all the way up to 1300.

The strong resistance at 1296ish stopped the rally once again and we'll have to see whether this is just another bulltrap of which we've seen many since early May or if this is the start of a new medium-term uptrend.

Above 1296 the next reistance is at 1313ish. Important support is at 1280ish. If the SPX declines below that level then I think we'll see the low (1260) again.

Blogger seems to have some problems again.. I can't post charts... So, I'll edit them later into this post

S&P 500 ~ Pre-Market Warm-Up ~ 21 June 2011

I'm not at home today so unfortunately I can't post any intraday updates.

After we hit the resistance at 1280 yesterday not much happened anymore. Overnight the ES rallied and is now above the aforementioned level so it looks like the SPX can breach the 1280 area at the open.

Next targets are the gap at 1288, the low 1290's and then 1313. Supports are at 1278-80, 1275 and 1268.