Sunday, April 4, 2010

Elliott Wave Count Easter 2010

Dollar: This is my primary count for the Dollar:

I think that the first wave up is completed and we are in wave (2) down. A decline below 79,51 confirms this. It's possible though that we are still in wave 5 of (1). But for this scenario we need a big rally next week above the March high.

Silver: I've spotted a very nice fractal:

So, there should be a big rally in Silver next week.

While I'm writing this I've spotted another fractal. Unfortunately these two fractals are contradictory, one is bullish short term the other one bearish (both are bullish medium term though). But I prefer the bullish case since many other metals are breaking out to the upside.

SPX: From mid March I've been expecting a decline into early April. What we've seen so far looks more like a consolidation than a sell off. Since cycles are turning up again we may see another leg up possibly to 1225ish.