Sunday, April 11, 2010

S&P 500 ~ Elliott Wave Count Week 14 2010

Since cycles turned up last week I expected the indices to rise this week. Well, that's what it did: The SPX gained 1.5 % - This is the sixth consecutive week the market closes up.

In the past ten years this happened only four times:

1 - In 2003/04 the market rose for 9 consecutive weeks!
2 - In 2007 for 7 weeks - this situation looks very similar to today (fractal? : )):

3 - Last year, 6 weeks - after the March low.
4 - today, 6 weeks so far.

For the medium term I have two slightly different counts. The first aligns very well with the fractal I posted above. The market would be in wave [v] of 3 of (5) with a target for (5) of 1225ish somewhen in May. The second one has us already in wave 5 of (5) with the same target but in mid/late April.

Short term the market seems to be in a third of a third wave (iii of (iii) of [v] of 3 or (iii) of [iii] of 5, depending on the count), thus we should see a nice rally next week.

If you've missed my Silver update you can find it here:

Have a nice week!

Edit: A short cycle update: One of my cycles tops next week and the other one in mid May, so both dates coincide with the two counts I posted above.