Sunday, April 18, 2010

S&P 500 ~ Fractal 18 April 2010

I've already mentioned this fractal last weekend, but I'd like to go into detail:

The chart on the left shows a fractal from 2007 and the one on the right is from today.

1 - the market tops.
2 - 14/15 trading days later: the market has declined about 100 points and found support at the MA.
3 - the market rallied and after a small correction the MA 29 provided support.
4 - ~50 trading days ago the market started its rally. In 2007 the rally had a length of 168.45 points - the current rally was only 0.97 longer!
5 - From that top the market started a 1-day-correction. In 2007 the correction had a length of 27.25 points. On Friday, the sell off was only 0.1 points shorter!

Should this correlation continue the market should rally next week and make new uptrend highs. In 2007 the market rallied 35.38 points. If the SPX rallies the same amount today we should hit 1222, just a few points below the 62 % retracement level.

Have a nice week!