Wednesday, June 16, 2010

S&P 500 ~ Elliott Wave Count 16 June 2010

Today, the SPX almost got to that 1120 level missing it by only 1 point. So, I think wave [a] finished at 1119. A typical b wave retracement is between the 23-38 % retracement level and the previous wave (iv) area. 1100 should also provide some support so I think 1090 to 1100 is the target area for wave [b].

If this level holds we should get a [c] wave to 1130-1170.

Alternative counts are shown in the chart:

Where are we in the big picture?

The most popular count, which I, to be honest, don't like at all, is that a multi decade bear market began in 2000 when we completed a (grand?) super cycle wave. The low in 2002/3 completed cycle wave a, the top in 07 a cycle wave b of an expanded flat and cycle wave c now underway subdividing into five Primary waves. Primary [1] finished at 666 and Primary [2] possibly finished at 1220.

I also added a Primary [A] [B] [C] count because I actually think that this super cycle wave finished at the 07 top. The reason I label it like that is because the European indices clearly made a five wave impulse from their 03 low to the 07 top. Well, the US and the EU counts don't have to concur but I think it's likely that both have the same count.

Below an exotic long term count I think ; )

So, if we exceed 1220 we could rally to 1600(!) and then crash to 500 completing an Expanding Triangle. It's the same pattern we saw in the 70's:

Ok, gotta get some sleep now... I have a fractal for you tomorrow morning but for now that's it ; )