Thursday, August 19, 2010

Confirmed Hindenburg Omen!

You can read my Elliott Wave update for today here

If I'm not totally mistaken we got a confirmed Hindenburg omen today!

As per Wikipedia:

"From historical data, the probability of a move greater than 5% to the downside after a confirmed Hindenburg Omen was 77%, and usually takes place within the next forty days. The probability of a panic sellout was 41% and the probability of a major stock market crash was 24%. Though the Omen does not have a 100% success rate, every NYSE crash since 1985 has been preceded by a Hindenburg Omen. Of the previous 25 confirmed signals only two (8%) have failed to predict at least mild (2.0% to 4.9%) declines."

So, the market doesn't have to crash but at least a bigger sell-off is very likely.

There are now many things suggesting for a big move down in the near future:

- the Elliott Wave count
- the big H&S
- the confirmed Hindenburg omen

=> I don't wanna be long here...