Sunday, August 29, 2010

S&P 500 ~ Elliott Wave Count 29 August 2010

-I was out all Friday, so I couldn't write any intraday updates, sorry for that.-

The SPX made a new downtrend low at 1039.70 and then rallied to end the week at 1064.59, up 1.66 % for the day.

Wave v of (iii) was shorter than I expected and ended on Friday at 1040. I think wave (iv) is underway now with a possible target of 1070. I posted a chart a few days ago showing that each wave (since early July) was retraced by 50 %, it didn't matter whether it was a second or fourth wave. The 50 % retracement is just below 1070 and at 1067 there is an open gap, so the market may reach this area on Monday.

The SPX must not surpass 1077 or this count is wrong because a wave (i) (iv) overlap isn't allowed. If the market crosses this level though then the following bullish alternative may be underway:

I give this count a very low probability since September is coming up which is historically the worst month for stocks. But once above 1077 the SPX could reach 1100 and then 1130 and 1150.

I'll post more about the different possibilities in my post "Outlook on September" on Tuesday evening.

Have a nice (trading) week!!