So far, the SPX has failed to rally through my first target area between 1245-50.
There are now two possibilities:
- Wave (1) has topped today and wave (2) is unfolding now. I'll prefer this count if we get a convincing break below 1220ish:
- Above 1247, the September fractal is still underway and the market is on its way to 1300. If so, 1247 was probably only the top of wave [i] of 5, so waves [iii] and [v] are yet to come. I admit that wave [i] is quite long, if you have a look at the previous first subwaves of waves 1 and 3 though, you'll see that wave [i] was always longer than wave [iii] and [v]:
After wave (1) has topped (either today or early next year) a second wave should be unfolding and retrace 50-62 % of wave (1) early 2011.