Wednesday, December 8, 2010

S&P 500 ~ Elliott Wave Count 8 December 2010

Both scenarios I explained yesterday are still possible:

The first one is that wave [ii] is underway. A break below today's low should confirm it:

Possible targets are the 1213 area (38 % retracement and (a) = (c)) and 1205ish (50 % and (a) = 0.62*(c))

The second one is the "September count". As I said yesterday if 1235 gets breached I think the market will just move higher into year-end:

In case we get above 1235 the first objective area at 1245-50 should be reached fairly easily.

If you compare the count above with the one below you can clearly see the similarities. Both had a very short first wave and a long third wave. The fifth wave back in September equaled wave (iii). So if this happens again, wave [v] may rally to 1280 ([v]=[iii]) which is near my second objective area at 1290.

To sum up, above 1235 we should see 1245-50 soon and below 1220 wave [ii] is underway to 1205/1213.