Wednesday, January 12, 2011

S&P 500 ~ Elliott Wave Count ~ 12 January 2011

The SPX rallied almost one percent today hitting a new rally high at 1287. The market is now just a few handles shy of my preferred target (1292) so let's have a look what may happen next.

I expect this fifth wave to end between 1292 and 1313. This should complete Intermediate wave (1).

After that, Intermediate wave (2) should follow. My preferred target is at 1200 +/- a few handles. In this area is the 38 % retracement level of wave (1), the weekly MA 200 and MA 76 (well... in a few weeks time) and it's the territory of wave 4. It may take up to three months to get there (no specific time target yet).

I'm confident that wave (2) is underway once 1261 is breached.

I'd like to stress that the uptrend is still intact, so shorts are still countertrend! Wave [v] may extend and rally even above 1313. Thus, I'm not bearish now, just cautiously bullish ; )

Let's compare waves 3 and 5 once again:

Last time we compared them we were in late October 2010. Today, I think, was November 4th 2010, so according to this comparison the top is very near, probably only about one week away.