Saturday, March 12, 2011

S&P 500 ~ Elliott Wave Count ~ 12 March 2011

The support around 1295 held and the market rallied back into the resistance area around 1305:

Unlike motive waves corrective waves are always very difficult to count. I see two possibilities right now and on Monday we should know which one is underway. The first one is that wave A of (2) ended on Friday and wave B is unfolding now i.e. we should see some sideways movement between 1290 and 1305 (or up to 1320). The second one is very bearish short term. If we get a convincing break of Friday's low I think a third wave of [c] is underway which would take the market down into the 1260 area.

So, for Monday a bit wishy-washy - either strong down or sideways/slighlty up but medium term the level remains the same: 1295 - a close below this level is bearish and should lead to a decline to 1275/1260/1220-25.