Monday, March 28, 2011

S&P 500 ~ Elliott Wave Count ~ 28 March 2011

As posted on Friday I expected 1320ish to be some sort of a resistance. The SPX has failed to breach this level twice and is approaching the 1308ish support again:

Support below 1308 is the 1300 area and then 1284ish. Resistance above 1320 is at 1330ish and 1344.

Still many Elliott Wave counts are possible:

If we get a convincing break of 1300ish a move to 1220ish is very likely in my opinion, a break of 1284 should confirm it, i.e. a blue wave Y or C would complete Intermediate wave (2) sometime late April or early May.

If we move above 1320 it's very likely that the wave (2) low is already in and that the next wave up towards 1500ish is already underway but only a move above 1344 confirms it as it could still be just a B wave.

So, there you have your levels: below 1300 = bearish (1284 next, 1220 very likely), above 1320 = bullish (1330, 1344 next, 1400+ very likely)