Sunday, July 18, 2010

S&P 500 ~ Elliott Wave Count 16 July 2010

Despite the GS and BP news on Thursday which were coincidentally (not) released within the same minute the market was not able to defeat the trendline.

On Friday the trendline came off as winner when the SPX lost almost 3 % of its value. The SPX is now sitting at the 38 % retracement and will possibly bounce early next week.

I can count a completed first wave down or a completed corrective wave at Friday's low so I expect a bounce on Monday to 1085ish. The downtrendline will also be around that level so what happens there will be crucial.

A break above it and the SPX is likely going to 1130-50 if it fails though the SPX should decline to below 1000 very soon.

I know the 1-2-1-2 count looks very unlikely because wave [ii] retraced 74 % but in late April wave [ii] (of 1) retraced 73 % so it already happened a few weeks ago ; )

Have a nice week!