Tuesday, July 27, 2010

S&P 500 ~ Pre-Market Warm-Up 27 July 2010

Wave iii of (iii) is doing what it's supposed to do - rallying:

The ES hit 1117 a few minutes ago thus the SPX should gap up to about 1120.

What worries me a bit though is the diagonal in the ES. If the lower trendline breaks we could go down again to 1084. If that happens I'd change my count to a [i]-[ii]-(i)-(ii) instead of a [i]-[ii]-[iii]. I'll watch this trendline closely today.

Edit 12:45 pm: The ES broke below the wedge and retested it from below. So if there are any bears left we should decline to ES 1084 from here. There are two count now:
- we're still in wave (iii) and wave iii topped at 1121. Wave iv retraced 38 % to 1110 earlier today and wave v is now underway with a target of 1130-40. 1110 needs to hold.
- wave (i) topped at 1121 and a bigger correction started today with a likely target in the high 1080's.