Wednesday, July 21, 2010

S&P 500 ~ Elliott Wave Count 20 July 2010

Yesterday we got the exact opposite of what we saw after the Intel numbers. IBM disappointed, the ES gapped down but then recovered and rallied for the whole day.

Apple reported afterhours yesterday and beat the estimates (not surprisingly imo - everybody buys their products) and the ES spiked to 1085.

Will we see an INTC déjà-vu, i.e. futures higher but losing everything during the next day?

The SPX 1080-85 area was reached yesterday, so I'm labeling the high as wave ii. Since most second waves are zigzags (5-3-5) I expected this area to be reached without making a new low before. Wave ii unfolded as an expanded flat (3-3-5) though. Minor 2 already unfolded in a flat, so may be that will be characteristic for this downtrend?

Since we got five waves from the lows we can also count it as a first wave of [c]/[iii] up. If the downtrendline, currently around 1090, and the 1100 area is breached this will be my preferred count. Target is 1150ish.