Thursday, July 8, 2010

S&P 500 ~ Elliott Wave Count and Fractal 7 July 2010

An impressive rally yesterday! Unfortunately this rally came one week too late... May be you remember that I expected a one day rally from 1030 to 1065 last Wednesday. Ironically yesterday's rally went from 1030 to 1060...

I found a nice fractal somewhere on the web (can't remember where...). The fractal basically compared the start of the bear market in 07 and today.

I slightly changed the fractal and added the "perfect" numbers to today's chart if today had the exact same proportions as in 07/08:

So far pretty impressive imo... This rally should stop around 1064 or it should measure 59 handles (1064-1005) which is the case at 1070 (1011+59). The last numbers were always about 5 handles off the real low/high so I tolerate a move to 1075- max 1080.

An updated wave count below:

I was a bit early labeling the wave [ii] high at 1042. So I changed to my alternative count: 1042 completed wave (w) and 1018 wave (x) of a double zigzag. Second waves usually retrace between 50 and 62 % so the target is between 1070 and 1085.