Wednesday, July 28, 2010

S&P 500 ~ Pre-Market Warm-Up 28 July 2010

As posted yesterday wave iii ended at 1121 and wave iv at 1110. So we should see another push higher today (1110 has to hold).
The alternate count I posted that a [i]-[ii]-(i)-(ii) is underway (wave (i) ended at 1121) matches the 07 fractal (see below).

Key level today is 1110 imo. If that breaks we should see lower prices - 1100, 1090ish and if that breaks probably a retest of the broken downtrendline in the low 1070's.

I think I posted the 07 fractal for the first time in late March. I looked at it again this weekend and it's still very similar to today:

During 02-07 the weekly MA 76 provided support. In 07 the MA was tested again and the market made a new high two months later.
In early July this MA got tested for the first time during this rally and the market has been rallying since then. So if this correlation continues we should make a new high late August/early September and then sell off again.

I added the [i]-[ii]-(i) count as an alternative because in 07 we got the exact same waves from the lows. The perfect levels would have been 1106-1065-1121-1070-and 1121+++. So far we got 1100-1057-1121, so that pretty much matches the 07 waves.